Now that we’re beyond the 2024 NFL Draft, I’m turning my attention to some of the more notable and trending dynasty storylines that are moving player values. Each offseason brings a combination of incoming rookies, social network herd mentality and free agency movement to provide compelling information to be digested and, sometimes, intriguing opportunities.
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All referenced data comes fromDynastyLeagueFootball(DLF), the oldest and largest dynasty-centric site on the planet. For this article, I’ll be using DLF’s Top 250 rankings as a basis for valuation.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR ARI
- DLF Rank: WR6
This year’s clear 1.01 in rookie drafts presents an oh-so intriguing draft profile, family legacy and upside potential such that he’s already listed as the WR6 without playing a single down in the NFL. Those of you who follow my work may be able to guess what I think about this development, but maybe I’ll surprise you here?
Verdict: Hold
Rookie drafts are without question my favorite part of the dynasty format. That’s not going out on a limb and I believe most share my sentiment. But, if you look back over the past 15-plus years of draft history, the results are unimpressive at best. (More on this later.) As it relates to Harrison, while I’m lower (WR14) than consensus, I won’t split hairs on Harrison’s value as I, too, love his profile. Unlike most rookie receivers, he also went to one of the better offensive situations in that veteran quarterback Kyler Murray remains at the helm in Arizona. Quarterback quality (lack thereof) often sinks the value of incoming rookie receivers, but this isn’t the case with this year’s top overall rookie asset.
Malik Nabers, WR NYG
- DLF Rank: WR11
While Marvin Harrison Jr. remains the consensus rookie WR1, I have seen cases where Nabers has overtaken him at the top of rookie drafts. I was in a draft where that occurred! This evaluation is more about Nabers as the rookie 1.01 than it is about his overall receiver ranking.
Verdict: Sell
I’ve already taken some heat about my downgrade of Nabers and I complete understand it. But I’m used to criticism when I don’t fall in line with herd mentality for rookie value. Every year, rookies percolate up dynasty rankings with reckless abandon, only to fall precipitously when the reality of their production doesn’t live up to the hype. For Nabers, it’s impossible not to love his route-running, fluidity, hands and athleticism. But look at the history of top rookie receivers — their NFL landing spot with regard to team and quarterback quality — and then tell me why he’s going to outperform over the next four years. Daniel Jones has been one of the worst quarterbacks for receiver production, and he’s on his way out of New York in all likelihood, which means a new incoming rookie quarterback will be incoming . The Giants’ run game is less than ideal after the departure of Saquon Barkley and the team has yet to add another significant receiver presence. I love everything about Nabers as a rookie receiver, but I can’t buy his value given his drafted situation. Again, reference recent highly valued rookie receivers paired with poor quarterback situations and the trend is clear.
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Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
- DLF Rank: TE5
Pitts is entering his fourth year in the NFL and his truthers have been forced to swallow the fact that, once again, he was highly over-drafted as a rookie. The heat I took at the time was only rivaled by my Jonathan Taylor criticism. Does Kirk Cousins’ presence elevate Pitts’ value enough that I’m intrigued?
Verdict: Buy
I finally said it! I’m still on the lower end (TE7) of consensus when it comes to Pitts, but I could see him rising to my TE4 after the regular season kicks off in September. He doesn’t turn 24 until October, the quarterback quality variable has improved dramatically and Cousins knows how to utilize his tight ends. Just like Nabers above, scheme and quarterback quality make all the difference here. I’m now happy to buy Pitts with a later-first 2024 rookie draft selection or equivalent player, well below his rookie-season value.
Anthony Richardson, QB IND
- DLF Rank: QB8
Richardson’s rookie campaign ended early as the injury bug bit hard, not once, but twice. In short order the size-speed product learned that the collegiate game is not the NFL. Richardson is on record as saying he doesn’t see himself changing his style, but he’s certain to augment it and he’ll have to prove he can be a pass-first quarterback. Whether he can be successful making this transition is hardly a certainty.
Verdict: Hold
The Colts did right by Richardson by locking up WR1 Michael Pittman and drafting rookie speedster Adonai Mitchell. Receiver Josh Downs is a prototypical slot-option who can stretch the field horizontally and vertically. While I’m concerned about the youth at receiver ahead of Richardson’s sophom*ore campaign, I find myself as excited about his 2024 prospects as I was when he took his first snaps as a rookie. Make no mistake, if he falls to injury again, or fails to develop, his ranking will plummet. For now, I’m holding and looking forward to watching him under center.
Zamir White, RB LV
- DLF Rank: RB28
Like most, I was watching the Josh Jacobs saga play out in 2023 and it was clear he would be playing elsewhere in 2024. This situation caused me to go back to White’s collegiate tape and review the fourth-round selection toward determining if he could be the next mid-round rookie selectee to inherit a starting situation. After that review, I found myself picking up White as a free agent or for a late-round 2024 rookie selection. I was rubbing my hands together maniacally as I watched him produce well over his final four games of 2023, showing that he should at least get a chance to be the starter. As it turns out, it’s clear the Raiders see White as their RB1.
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Verdict: Buy
This is exactly the assess-and-buy scenario that I urge dynasty managers look for when forecasting a year ahead. Expiring contracts, depth chart uncertainty and a collegiate profile which could suggest production all combine for potential opportunity. In this case, I now have a starting running back plucked off the waiver wire. It doesn’t always play out so well and White is not a long-time proven performer, but in a no-cost situation, you can’t ask for more. There aren’t 28 running backs better than White in 2024.
Rashee Rice, WR KC
- DLF Rank: WR27
Let’s be honest, Rice’s offseason has been less than desirable. Coming off a promising rookie campaign where he proved he could be Patrick Mahomes’ WR1, all arrows were pointing up for his sophom*ore season. His offseason rap sheet is well known, so I won’t go into details, but judging by the number of offseason trades I’ve seen Rice involved in, he’s on the minds of dynasty managers.
Verdict: Hold
At this point, if you are looking to deal away the upside sophom*ore asset, it will be done at a significant discount to what it otherwise would have been. In the leagues where I roster Rice, the offers were constant and it usually involved a high second round rookie selection — not out of the question at that value. But when considering his legal issues, his age and his upside quarterback situation, dealing away Rice means that you believe that either his knucklehead tendencies are here to stay or that, perhaps, his NFL career could be in jeopardy. As it stands, Rice is likely to receive a sizable suspension but have every opportunity to learn from his mistake. At this juncture, I’m holding, but tenuously.
Rookies
- DLF Rank: High
I’m going to ruffle some feathers here I suspect, and those of you have followed me here at The Athletic already know what I’m going to say. Rookies and the rookie draft are the “fun” of dynasty. It is through them that we play NFL GM as we seek to build a dominant team and lord over our leaguemates. Each year brings new promise of a better team through our rookie selections. But what does history tell us about the impact of rookies?
Verdict: Sell
To be honest, it’s not even a close proposition. My series here in 2023 looking at 15 years of dynasty rookie draft history was all too clear. Pinning your hopes on becoming competitive via the rookie draft is a fool’s errand. Outside of the top three (1.03) rookies, on average, success rate plummets. In fact, in many cases, it’s in the late first round, held by competitive teams, that those rookie hits are found. But the declining trend of success beyond 1.03 is clear. If you wish to be competitive, see through the veil of rookie hype and augment each position on your roster with at least one very productive veteran. Rookies are best utilized to augment a productive team of veteran producers, not as an entire rebuild strategy. Don’t fall for the hype, though we all do it on occasion.
I hope you enjoyed this buy/sell/hold edition. If you have any questions or comments, please consider leaving a comment below. I look forward to interacting with my readers. Please give me a follow on Twitter and Threads:@DLF_Jeff
As always, be happy, be well and, please, be good to each other!
(Top photo of Zamir White: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports)
Jeff Haverlack is one of the founders (2006) and owners of DynastyLeagueFootball.com (DLF) and has been an avid player of fantasy football from the 1990s. While much of his time is spent on the business of fantasy sports including writing content for DLF and other websites, Jeff is also passionate about NFL-related rookie and collegiate player scouting and development. In his spare time he likes to involve himself in photography, guitar, hiking/exploration, financial planning and the wine industry. Follow Jeff on Twitter @DLF_Jeff
